A Probabilistic Framework for Aircraft Conflict Detection

A PROBABILISTIC FRAMEWORK FOR AIRCRAFT CONFLICT DETECTION Maria Prandini, John Lygeros, Arnab Nilim and Shankar Sastry Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Sciences University of California at Berkeley Berkeley CA 94720 fprandini, lygeros, nilim, [email protected] ABSTRACT We describe a general con ict detection/resolution scheme, focusing on the con ict detection component for a pair of aircraft ying at the same altitude. The proposed approach is formulated in a probabilistic framework, thus allowing uncertainty in the aircraft positions to be explicitly taken into account when detecting a potential con ict. The computational issues involved in the application of the proposed con ict alerting system are addressed by resorting to randomized algorithms. Finally, the validation of the proposed detection scheme is performed by Monte Carlo simulation on a stochastic ODE model of the aircraft motion. Our simulations show very promising results. The detection scheme will be used as the basis for a con ict resolution scheme in forthcoming work. INTRODUCTION Safety, of which con ict prediction and resolution form an integral part, is the primary concern of all advanced air tra c management systems. Con ict prediction and resolution are considered at three di erent levels in the air tra c management process: Long range: Some form of con ict prediction and resolution is carried out at the level of the entire National Airspace System (NAS), over a horizon of several hours. It involves composing ight plans and airline schedules (on a daily basis, for example) to ensure that airport and sector capacities are not exceeded. This is typically accomplished by large scale integer and linear programming techniques1;2. Research supported by DARPA under grant F33615-98-C-3614, by NASA under grant NAG 2-1039 and by ARO under grant MURI DAAH 04-96-1-0341. The authors would like to thank Dr. George J. Pappas for the stimulating discussions. Copyright c 1999 by the Regents of the University of California. Published by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc., with permission. Sampled estimates of aircraft positions Conflict probability information